Can Gabriel Jesus Survive Hansi Flick's System?
Dan is joined by Elliot Smith (@YankeeGunner) of ArsenalVision Podcast to discuss the signing of Gabriel Jesus. They discuss his long and storied injury history, his tactical fit with Hansi Flick's Barcelona, the contract numbers, and much more! 0:00 Gabriel Jesus Signs 1:33 Fitness Questions 9:24 Tactical Fit 23:31 Contract Numbers 31:55 Character Impact 37:31 UCL Favorites 🎧 Available on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and everywhere you listen. 💬 Comment with your favorite goal from the match and a nickname for podcast supporters 🔔 Subscribe for more Barcelona breakdowns every matchday Listen to the full podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast ... 📲 Join the BigUp Watchalongs every matchday + play our free fantasy lineup game! 🔵🔴 Subscribe on YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and Patreon for ad-free episodes. BlueWireVideo
字幕
Welcome to episode 848 of the Barcelona podcast brought to you by the Blue Wire Podcast Network. I am Dan Hilton and the transfer window for Barcelona is officially closed. Now, fortunately for me, just as I record this and the window has closed, I'm going to be doing the big picture stuff in the next few days, give grades, all that good stuff, but I don't have any other pressing stuff to talk about. So, the final new signing of the summer for Barcelona is Gabriel Jesus. Instead of me blabbing on about what I've seen in Arsenal and Man City and my own opinion, my opinion, as we know, is not in the day-to-day minutia of these players and these teams. So, to help me do that, I'm bringing on a friend from the Bluewire Podcast Network, and that is Elliot Smith from the Arsenal Vision podcast. If you've in any way dealt with Arsenal in the past, if you're a Barcelona/Arsenal fan, if you have a deep deep love of Terry Enri as I do, then you probably already know who Elliott is. But Elliot, either way, thanks for returning to the show. By the way, for some of the OGs, they'll remember that this is not your first foray here on the pod. >> Yeah, it's good to talk to you, Dan. I appreciate you having me on. And I will simply say that I will do my best to make this a good listen. I think there are going to be some difficult conversations to be had here and the conclusions may not be exactly what you want to hear but I will uh give it to you as straight as I can and as honestly as possible and you can take it from there. >> Yeah. So let's when you say difficult that I think that kind of pushes us towards our very first topic and that it's not the contract it's not the tactical fit that's more the positives. We're actually going to start with the negative. Usually I try to be a a glass half full kind of guy. But if this deal, which is we'll get back to it later, but for 10 mil plus add-ons up to 14 mil, if this winds up not working out at all, it's probably going to have something to do with Gabriel Jesus not being able to stay healthy. And obviously when we say stay healthy, we're talking about a lot of different things. He has said his knee is perfect. So the knee is the first body part we're really going to look at. It has taken him basically two years to recover from an ACL injury he suffered in January of 2025. And for the 29year-old to the last four seasons, he has largely played as a sub, which in theory is a positive thing for Barcelona. And before we get into all the other numbers and all that stuff, big picture stuff, correct? ACL injury. What are you seeing? What are your thoughts on sending Barcelona a healthy player or not? >> I mean, this is a really, really difficult question to answer. There is the question of whether he is still an injuryprone or unfit player and the question of whether his body has any football left in it. Uh that may sound hyperbolic but I I I want to I want to take those two things separately. I think there is every possibility that he is recovered that he is fit. Um you know I got really lucky. I had the chance to sit uh and talk to Gabriel Jesus for for quite a while at an event last season. We sat and we talked and I mean he was as lovely a human being as you could ask to to have a conversation with. Just thoughtful, mature, articulate in the way he spoke about his football and his and his passion for the sport. And he said to me, "I know I could have extended my career and improved my career dramatically by leaving the Premier League sooner that he still felt a hunger and an appetite to show that he could perform in the Premier League and give something back to Arsenal." But he made a point to me that I think was really important. He said, "As footballers, we're in sort of a a lose-lose situation." You know, a can't win situation in that if you are injured and do not play, you develop a reputation as being cropped, right? As being an injuryp-prone player, but if you try to play through your injury, your diminished performances damage your reputation and you are thought of as a lesser player. So, how do you manage injury? Do you play through it at a lesser level and become denigrated in terms of your reputation in football or do you not play through it and simply be seen as a player who can't get on the pitch? And I think Jesus has struggled with both of those issues obviously since the big knee injury uh at the World Cup which was on when all of this started a mid-season World Cup which was the last thing Arsenal needed. We were competing for a title unexpectedly that season. I think he has probably, knowing nothing about him medically, put the injury issues behind him. I think he will be available. I I went to Ireland. I watched preseason game there. I watched the preseason this summer. I saw some of his performances last season. I have real questions about whether top level football is still in his body from an explosiveness and athleticism standpoint. his ability to get to the ball and use his exquisite technical level to get into shooting positions to make the right final action. That to me looks like it has faded dramatically. The question of whether the pace of play and the time on the ball that's available in La Liga is significantly different, you would know better than I would. if he has a little more time and a little more room, suddenly that physical diminishment may seem less um critical, it may seem less problematic. But I I will tell you Dan, as bluntly as I can, there is a real question in my mind about whether there is any top level football left in his body. >> You know, you say to the Liga, and I think that's when you look at this signing a really interesting part of that. If Barcelona had signed this player, Gabriel Jesus, four years ago for 65 million, then you would have expected him to be their starting number nine for Champions League nights. And the way that we have already seen Barcelona through three matches this season, and then again looking at this player last season as a sub, 27 matches, six goals, two assists, just under 1,000 minutes in the year coming back from an ACL injury. When you're looking at what Hanzi Flick will likely ask him to do, who he'll be asked to be, it is a man to your point who's largely going to be fighting against lowblocks in La Liga and potentially some, you know, larger level La Liga stuff, maybe Atletico Madrid. I mean, of classical, who knows? And as insurance for Rafinia, who has started as a number nine now through the first three matches of the season. Um, the year before, I'll say again, last season he did play, but as a sub, as you mentioned, uh, the year before he misses 48 matches due to the AL injury. It is also his first full season at Arsenal after a 52 million euro move. He missed 14 matches that season with four minor hamstring injuries, some niggling knee injuries, things like that. knee, hamstring, and groin stuff, by the way, does go back to 201718 for a player that was already playing as a teenager for Palmis way back in the day and then makes the move as a youngster, we'll say, yeah, relatively young to Man City and as you said, has jumped in, has been playing in the Premier League for about a decade now. Uh, major I mean, and two to that point, major minutes. And I think for Barcelona, and I think all clubs have this, but for Barca in particular, it's interesting to see the ways that different ACL injuries affect players, right? So Christensen a year and a half ago had that partial tear and he does not look himself and he may never look himself as he's right around the same age as Gabriel Jesus. You look at Rodri who has been signed now for the number he was won the Ballindor and we'll say then the ASIL injury and all this stuff and you could see that it not say that his game is too affected or not affected by it but he's been able to get back to so much of what we expect him to be because he's not relying on the quick change of direction all those different things right it's it's for for Rodri the ACO injury he's able to recover that same thing with Mark Bernol did not look himself we'll say for about a year after the ACO injury but now he's getting back to Gobby you could argue has still now not looked himself now two two plus years later and up and down that line Rooney Bardaji Barcelona gets him for 2-0 because he has that ACL injury when he's 17 years old or whatever is at Copenhagen. So again, up and down the the list. However, you're looking at the players who've dealt with like muscle stuff and and issues in the past. That being Pedri, that being Rafinia, that being Almo, who never would have been able to stay healthy in their careers, and yet they've been largely fit despite Hanzi Flick's high press system. Um, now it feels like we are talking a lot about tactics. So I kind of want to just give you the the runway here. And I think we do talk a bit more positively about this because I think when managers are asked about a player that is signed um unless the rare occasion when managers are a bit too honest and they're like I don't really watch him. It was a sporting director decision which doesn't happen too often but clearly Hondi Flick Deco Buen everybody around the club seems to know what they're going to be asking this player of because even last season even last season in as you said a player who may not be capable of top level football anymore at a high level. He was still in the 95th percentile for presses per 90 which means he outperformed 95% of the compared central strikers in that group. And this is according to data from Adnan, that's four A's, N433. Brazilian is the second best pressing striker in Europe's top five leagues among those number nines who have played fewer than 900 minutes in the competition. So when he was asked to do that job, he did that job. I have other boring numbers for you, Elliot, but unfortunately when I talk my audience does take to have to take their naps, so I want to wake [snorts] them back up. So yes, Gabriel Jesus, who is he and what is he going to add on the pressing side of things, which again, Hanzi Flick, I mean, and Barcelona are one of the top top teams in the world that want to do that. >> Yeah. And and look, Flick, Artetta, these are disciples of Pep Guardiola, positional football, pressing football. Maybe Mikuel a little more conservative in his in his deployment of those philosophy. Hanzi Flick maybe the the fullest uh most extreme example of how you can leverage the the pep philosophy, but you have to press for Melta and if you don't press, you won't get in the team. The fact that he got in the team at all means he's willing to do the right things. There's no question in my mind that in terms of his tactical understanding of what will be asked of him at Barcelona, Gabriel Jesus is up to the challenge, right? And if you take out whether he can stay fit because look, I mean, everybody understands if someone has an injury history, they might get injured. That's not good analysis. My concern is more just whether he can still get to his spots, get to his positions at the same timing and expectation that he once was able to. I mean, this is a player that in his prime before the Arsenal move and the knee injury, he was an absolute leader and key crunchtime performer Pep Guardiola City in their pump, playing all across the front three during runins when they won titles up against Prime Klopp Liverpool. Right. So, he he was indehaticable. He was an extraordinary presser. He was an all-around forward. I I think he still has all of those qualities in terms of application and understanding of his the technical responsibilities. It's a question of whether his body can do it. Now, there's one thing that we should say about Gabriel Jesus because it's the kind of thing that can drive fans crazy. Even at his best, this is not a clinical finisher. Gabriel Jesus loves to miss a big chance. He loves to miss any chance. You give him a chance to miss, it's like his favorite thing in the world. So, while I think his technical level is extraordinary, weirdly in front of goal, he has just never been clinical. He has never been a finisher. And I think that drove Arsenal fans a little bit nuts even before the decline started. I mean, he showed up, he changed our lives. He really did. He showed up to an Arsenal team that had failed to finish in the Champions League places and we got off to an extraordinary start uh in his first season at Arsenal. Just got out of the gate fast, blistering pace at top the Premier League, on pace for over 100 points until after that mid-season World Cup. But just before the mid-season World Cup where he got the knee injury that cost him the rest of that season, he was starting to miss some big chances. He was starting to go through gold droughts, not through lack of opportunity, but through lack of finishing. So, you know, you're talking about a player who at his absolute best still would would miss the odd chance. And I just wonder sometimes if you're playing sub minutes, if you're, you know, if you have a highly specialized substitute role, do you want a guy who might get one chance in his 15minute cameo and blow it? You know what I mean? I I think at his best >> he is a player who can be a great sub, but he's going to drive you nuts with that that chance or two that will stick in the mind where he had a chance to do something and he didn't put it away. Yes. So, I have numbers to back all that up. Unfortunately, only 41% of his shots are on target, which is substantially lower than, and I will say this very unfortunately slowly, much lower than Shaon Torres. I'm so sorry to tell you, [laughter] but yes, it is substantially lower than than Fernan Torres, who Barcelona fans have also labeled that exact same big chance misser. But Gabriel Jesus is even in the much lower percentile in like the 36 percentile in big chances missed. Unfortunately in his Champions [clears throat] League career his goals plus assists per 90 is around one. So he actually to your point on those biggest nights for Man City did kind of show up at times. And to your al the other point you have about the the sub role. Yes. combining all of it, the injury stuff, not being too clinical. You know, my big thing was the Gabriel Jesus signing would be insurance for Rafinia. That is what it feels like. That's why he got the number nine. And so it feels like with Gabriel Jesus, he doesn't truly solve the issue of if Rafina were to go down and miss even as much as he did last year with a number of little different injuries, but if he went down for two to three months, I don't know how Gabriel Jesus would do in 1,200 minutes or 1,400 minutes, right? That would be the issue. The funny thing again is we continue to talk about the pressing part of it, which I think is what excites everybody that look at Anthony Gordon. People were like, "Oh, Marcus Rashford, that was going to be a a step down to Anthony Gordon." But the way Anthony Gordon, we knew what he did well, that's press. He also was not a very clinical finisher either. And he does not yet have a Barcelona goal just yet. But the pressing nature of his play, the associative nature of Anthony Gordon's play has fit in perfectly to the system. And the argument is that Honda flick system because of the number of chances it creates and especially in the La Liga high leverage chances it creates that you know you and I would be close to finishing 50% of those chances right is part of the argument. Um and I found the the counterpressing thing you said about Man City really interesting. At Man City he was in the 98th percentile. So like very few players were better at counterpressing per 90 than him. He is still even in his injured time at Arsenal in a 97 percentile. He's in the 91st percentile in defensive actions per 90. So what I find that all of that to be so interesting is that even this shell of a player still does what he's going to be asked to do at a very high level. And so my again glass half full would be Hans Flick says hey buddy for a thousand minutes this season and next and there's that third option or I think the third might be guaranteed at this point. Either way, he'll be 32 at the time. But for the next two plus years, give me 2,000 minutes, work really hard, continue to be in the 95th to 988th percentile in pressing and counter pressing, and we will do the rest. And the likes of Luminium Mal and Pedri and Rodri and all of your very associative teammates will help you. And that 81% passing completion rate, that's kind of the other part of this that I want to mention. Buon and others talking very glowingly about his associative play. Do you think that is, you know, a major thing regardless of his, you know, physical aspects. >> Yeah. Yeah. I mean, he he has everything you want in a player. He has the the intelligence. He has the the technical level with the ball at his feet. He has some spectacular finishes in him. He has the willingness to run and press and work. He can play off both sides and through the middle. It really is the issue that I have not seen any evidence that he has top level football in his body anymore over the last 12 months. I mean, if you look at some of the goals he's scored, by the way, and look at the games he's played in. We're talking about scoring against Wigan. We're talking about scoring against Portsouth. We're talking about League Cup and FA Cup. He had two at the San against Inter. So, okay, that was pretty nice. But this also sort of would happen with him. He'd come into the team. He'd get a start. I remember he scored five goals against Crystal Palace in back-to-back games, a Premier League game and a cup tie and then he kind of the football vanished from him again. And that would be that's been sort of a recurring theme with him the last couple seasons. He'd come back from a spell on the sideline. He'd look fit and ready. He'd flash some of that skill, but he could not maintain the level. He just couldn't carry it on. He'd get a start off the back of a performance like that and be a shell of himself. Now look, maybe not having to go to places like St. James's Park and Stadium of Light, you know, up at Sunderland, up in Newcastle in February will help. You know, the warm weather, sunny skies, you know, less physical intensity, fewer people raking down the back of your Achilles, you know, that that can help. And, >> you know, I think the the willingness is certainly there. And like I said, when I sat down and spoke to him and he talked about, I know I could have played better and extended my career if I left the Premier League sooner, maybe there is a recognition that he has that that league is just too intense physically for where his body is right now. And maybe a league that has slightly less physical intensity that emphasizes technical level and and tactical excellence more will suit him. And I think that's possible. I mean, the other thing I will say is there's huge value to a player if he's got anything left >> who can be good in all three attacking positions. You know, that can solve a lot of problems for you. If you want to take Yamal off after 75 minutes and give him 15, you can. If if Rafinia needs a day off, you can play him there. If you want him to take the last 10 minutes at center forward, he can play there. And at least your shape will be good and the understanding of how to play across those positions will be good. So tactically he's a great fit. From a squad player standpoint, he solves a lot of problems. The the character is good. I I really thought his next move was going to be like Brazil, you know. >> Or Saudi Arabia. Yeah. >> Yeah. Or Saudi Arabia. And And I mean to be fair, I don't think he had any interest in doing that. But >> yeah, >> this is this is a move that on at a minimum though to me, I don't think he's looking to just collect a pension here. I I think from fr