Sizing Up Arsenal's Title Chances
Caught Offside Arsenal Columnist Charles Watts joins The Debrief to analyse Arsenal's road to a Premier League Title. Fabrizio Romano is in his normal spot to give the latest insight on the biggest transfer rumours and headlines.
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hello you're listening to the debrief and I'm anger Scott it's a three horse title race we haven't said that much before is this one genuine or are we going to get excited for a bit and then Man City end up winning or on the spin well not if Jurgen klopp has his Farewell way nor if Arsenal can get over their serial under achiever tag and finally pass the finish line for the first time in 20 years that's when Facebook was launched although it was originally called the Facebook I didn't know that our usual contribution from transfer Guru for Brito Romano to come and we'll also be hearing from Charles Watts the author of Revolution the rise of our Teta Arsenal he knows this club inside out but of course I'm really pleased to say that as ever alongside me is Ben Jacobs good afternoon or evening a new fact known I didn't know the Facebook thing either I didn't know that at all it's odd and how losing just three little letters the Facebook to Facebook actually makes quite a bit of difference if you were going to lose three letters out of out of your name Ben what would you CH Ben OBS it's not quite got the same ring to has it anger no SK no anyway uh well move on Arsenal's path to the title that's what we're discussing today they're one of three top of the pile but Ben what have they got to do to actually get over the line and emulate Arsen wenger's 2004 side well I think it would be better than AR's invincibles if I'm honest I know we can look at the statistics and say one was unbeaten and the other wouldn't be but it's so hard to win the Premier League and if you win it in a three-horse race and you beat Manchester City and a Liverpool team in klopp's final season that's better for me just because the league has got more competitive and I think what they need to do is first and foremost not wobble like they did when they were Front Runners and in a weird way it might be easier for them because it's Tighter and there was maybe more of a sense of expectation last season because at times they had leads whereas now it's so tight that there's final margins and naturally if they can keep everybody fit and not lose key players then they'll be in a very strong position but I think what worries me for Arsenal and to be fair Liverpool as well I don't know if you agree is just the running is tough for them and if you add depth in the Champions League should they get P by in Munich then not only are they no easy fixtures but they've got a congested fixture calendar with what I would consider to be tougher games than either Liverpool or Manchester City Liverpool have got a m side Derby Liverpool have got to go away at a few tough places that is for sure but when you look at Arsenal having to have that season defining game away at Manchester City where they've got to get something in my opinion and then in addition to that home to Aston Villa isn't easy they've got a North London Derby and that's away at Spurs they've got to go away at Manchester United they've got to play Everton and they might be fighting for their lives and that's on the final game of the season so I think that of the three teams Arsenal have got the hardest run in and then Manchester City have probably got the easiest running and the most death so I think that means in simple terms if Arsenal are going to win the title they've got to get something in this next game after the international break against Manchester City otherwise not mathematically of course because it's always going to be tight but I think practically if they lose that game then I don't see how they win the Premier League title I I think I'm with you and the the trouble is they've got such a poor record at Manchester City and and have been embarrassed there recently but what a what when you look at Manchester City's fixtures you're thinking well what are their difficult ones you after the Arsenal one y Villa at home Arsenal they got to play Villa as well but yes Real Madrid will take their mind off things for just a couple of minutes but then when you're talking about Luton Chelsea at home Nottingham Forest wolves Fulham West Ham they're not the sort of sides I don't think that are going to worry you that much and I know everyone can be everyone I suppose on their day but not when a Manchester City team is um refined to perform a crescendo at the right part of the season and I feel that's exactly what they're doing and what Arsenal didn't do last year yeah I mean Arsenal lost William CRA it was a big blow we know that and they didn't quite have the depth to recover and comparative to now they were less experienced as well so if we're making a case for Arsenal they're scoring goals for fund 30 plus in 2024 and in addition to that they are as of now because of the draw between Liverpool and Manchester City top of the Premier League on goal difference and it's reasonably healthy goal difference in the sense that you got 10 games left you've got plus five over Liverpool and I think it's a nine goal difference between them and Manchester City so if Arsenal stay free scoring then unless Liverpool or City beat someone by six or seven Arsenal will feel like they can keep pace so it's in their hands but it won't obviously if they lose to Manchester City in their next game so this is what I fear for Arsenal but if you look at the fixtures that you spoke of for Manchester City they've got an away game against Crystal Palace they only Drew with them at home teams fighting for their lives will pull results out of the bag so we may get surprises it in my opinion will come down to the final day but I think for Arsenal the most important thing if they are to win the the Premier League is that they are Front Runners if we get to a point between game 28 which is now and game 32 where Manchester City are top and clear then I think that there'll be no looking back so it's really important for Arsenal and Liverpool that they're Front Runners otherwise I think if Manchester City sneak ahead and that may happen in the next run of fixtures at that point and at this stage of the Season I'd be very surprised if they throw it away don't forget we have fabito Romano on the way our transfer Guru who be dropping in for the latest and certainly talking about Arsenal and very interestingly Charles Watts who um is now on the court offside um pay payroll I believe um so it's good to have uh him on board as well and he if you don't know is um certainly a an Arsenal Insider and uh knows any any everything and anything that's going on at the Emirates and we'll have an interesting chat with him in a moment um and your thoughts are always welcome please do get in touch with us and we'll ask the guys as many questions as possible Ben and before I go to Charles though for you how much business do you expect Arsenal to be doing during the summer irrespective of whether they win this league title come second or as many would predict they actually come third quite a bit because they will get Champions League football and with that it means that you can plan and budget I think outgoings are going to be important for everyone because profit and sustainability the first thing to say about Arsenal is that they've got various assets that they can either get off the wage bill or potentially get fees for Eddie and ker is one that can open up the door to bring in a striker and then Aaron ramsdale may want game time so Arsenal would love to keep him but let's wait and see I think the goalkeeper even though he's got a very amable personality may start pushing because it's clear that David reyer is the number one and then we know in Midfield Thomas party's had a question mark over him for quite some time so another midfielder could come in Douglas Luis Martin zuberi neither of them are easy but Arsenal have trapped them for quite some time and they're not integral to the Arsenal Squad but a player like Cedric leaving still frees up a squad space and a little bit of money off the wage bill so Arsenal will be looking predominantly for a striker and we know that they'll be in the conversation potentially for Victor oan also a player like Victor Darez who some have linked with Chelsea but there's denials from the Chelsea side I've seen that question in the chat that there was ever any kind of offer in January Ivan Tony might be somebody that Arsenal consider but don't rule out free agency in 2025 rather than 2024 but Arsenal if they've got a big bulk of money to spend Striker is going to be important Midfield is a possibility if there are outgoings and then obviously if ramsdale leaves they find themselves in a position where they probably look for some kind of backup goalkeeper it's not Mikel arteta's preference but they're at a very interesting point in their juncture now because a lot of the players they back in the long term have been given long-term contracts and as a result of that internal revamp which is probably the best way of putting it where over the course of 18 months various players at the football club have been secured for the long run if you've not got that contract or if you've not got that game time it's now where you start to say maybe I've got to go elsewhere so there's a question mark over EML Smith rad as well which I think would divide opinion amongst the Arsenal fan base some would like to see him give him more opportunities others may feel that it's time for him to leave and this is the key juncture because if Arsenal get four or five outgoings then they may generate the kind of money that allows them to move a bit bigger in the market so I think because of profit and sustainability they spent big on debt and rice yurian Timber who luckily will be coming back from injury now relatively soon and Kai havitz was a big outlayer as well so they have to be a little bit financially conscious but ultimately there are assets in the football club like in CA 30 35 million that they can sell to allow them a bit more freedom in the market so I do expect them to be relatively busy that's a big price ready and CA if if a Striker's worth 30 or 30 or if that's what Arsenal value him at then um I I don't know what club would pay 30 or 35 million for Eddie young kessie who's still for me is is unproven at the highest level but but we know that everybody needs most people need a striker and as you said Arsenal are one of those but Eddie and cessie are clearly not fitting the bill right but someone will know all about this is Charles watts and uh Charles uh is the author of the Sunday Times bestseller artetta the rise of arteta's Arsenal it's been fascinating to watch it's a fascinating read and a little bit earlier I caught up with Charles Charles thanks for joining us on the debrief I wonder what you think Arsenal's chances of actually winning the tit oh I mean it's they they're good you can't be sitting top of the table with 10 games to go and and they not be good but you know I think you look at the op to op to sort of crunched the numbers and they've done the win probability percentage and Arsenal is still way way behind Manchester City and Liverpool and I I think when you look at Arsenal's away games between now and the end of the season there's a big that's the big reason for that you know a away to away to City obviously next but then you got away you got away games at Old Trafford and and and Spurs as well and you know they're very very difficult games and in this sort of race with Liverpool and Manchester City you barely can afford any sort of slip up and you know if Arsenal are going to win the title then they're going to have to go to these big away games and then they're going to have to get the job done and get those type of wins that teams do when they get over the line you know I go back to you know way back to 1998 when Arsenal traveled up to Old Trafford at sort of this stage of the season and markar scored the winner they won one nil and that was a sort of launch pad for them to go on and win the league That season and there's countless other victories in title winning years that you look away from home and and sort of pinpoint that as as the moment and you know if Arsenal can go to Man City the end of this International break on the 31st and go there and win something they've not done for an awful long time um then they're going to have a really really good chance but you do feel that they're probably going to have to get something out of that trip to thead if they don't even with nine games to go you think they're probably going to be they're going to struggle but as you said they've done it before and and you just wonder if they could go there and and turn Man City over what that would do for the other nine games then surely they believe that the title could be theirs yeah absolutely I mean I think they do believe right now you know they've got the M momentum behind them they're on a fantastic run of form you know 2024 has been remarkable really when you look at the numbers and you look at what Arsenal produced since the turn of the year in the Premier League and they're never going to go to the EAD feeling better about themselves than they do right now and you look at this team you sort of cast your mind back to the game at the etti had last season when the wheels had already just started to come off Arsenal's title charge and then they went to they went to Man City and were absolutely you know brutally beaten really it was 4-1 in the end but it could have been a lot lot more you know Aaron ramale made so many good saes in that game and it was it almost looked like men against boys but this time around with this Arsenal team the way they're playing at the moment you know they've got pretty much everyone fit they will back themselves to go to the E had and turn and and put in a performance and get get get some sort of result there um you know the addition of Declan rice to the team just makes them so much harder to beat and defensively there's no better team in Europe right now than Arsenal that you know it's not just the goals they ConEd or the lack of goals they're conceding it's the lack of chances their you know teams are creating against them Arsenal are incredibly difficult to play against they're a horrible team to play against and you know defensively that Partnership of Cela and Gabrielle is so so solid and when you put georgino in the form that he's been in in the big games but especially Declan rice the ahead of those two center backs accent it's it's a really hard job for teams to get through Arsenal and that's why they'll go to the atad and they'll fancy getting a job done and um yeah I mean it'll be a remarkable result if they do and like you said I think it'll be a real real springboard for them to go on and potentially win this title what do you think the new contracts for Tommy assu and Ben White might mean for the club I just think it means it it sort of continues on what we've seen the work that they've done over the last couple of years you know they've edu and the contracts team have really put an awful lot of work in into keeping this group together you go back to previous in the last sort of 20 years really since the invincibles there's been the odd season even towards the end of wenga when Arsenal would put a squad together that you thought oh this is capable maybe they one or two players short really been able to mount a serious charge for a title or a major honor but then each time that Squad just gets cherry-picked you know they couldn't hold on to the players they couldn't match their Ambitions or financially they couldn't compete with other big teams that came in and just took him away your fabrigas your nazar's your adabor your cliches all those sort of players but this group Arsenal have worked so hard to bring them together but more importantly they've kept them together everyone now you you know white and Tommy as are probably the last in the line of your sackers Martinelli celias Gabrielle's even Aaron ramsdale before David ryer came in all those players were handed new Contra contracts to keep them up to Club to keep the continuity going and keep this group together that Arsenal then build around say come the summer transfer window when they will do quite significant business they're not going to have to be replacing some important players who have left because these players they know are committed and they're going to stay for the long term so all they have to do in terms of the transfer market is continue to improve the squad and that's something they haven't done for a long long time so you know I think they're really important deals Ben White especially you know he's a guaranteed starter in this team at the moment Tommy ASU is a very important player as well so you know I don't think they're not like these groundbreaking huge deals that the importance of say sacker and maybe Martinelli or CA were but it just adds to the work that has been done over the last two years to keep this group together and do you expect quite a bit of work to be done whether they win the title or not during the summer yeah absolutely you know Mel onet in charge he's not a manager who wants to see things stagnate or stand still he knows that Arsenal have to keep improving you know it's still very much a work in progress at Arsenal there was that sort of phrase wasn't there of trust the process with Mel when he was sort of put in this group together he doesn't think this process is done yet he knows they have to continue to improve because Manchester City will Liverpool clearly have improved over the last year we wait to see obviously what the new manager is who the new manager is but whoever it is is going to inherit a very good young Squad that Jurgen klopp has done well to refresh in the last year or so you know you look at the other teams around who have been a bit of a mess over the last couple of Seasons you know I'm very much looking at Manchester United and Chelsea when I say that they're going to sort themselves out you think are going to continue to improve so Arsenal have to um they've done some really smart business in the transfer window over the last couple of Seasons the sort of partnership that Mel and edu have is excellent they're very much on on the sort of same page when it comes to building a squad and um and they're going to do that again this summer you know they'll invest pretty heavily it's pretty open secret that they're going to be looking for a striker I wouldn't be at all surprised if a midfielder comes in potentially another wide attacker um you know Aaron R is going to have to be replaced if as expected he does move on so there's a lot of work for Arsenal to do and they they're certainly not going to go into the summer expecting to stand still and would the most important signing be a resigning of Michel Etta as he has only has another year left on his contract I suppose yeah when you put it like that absolutely because he is the guy who who has turned things around at Arsenal you know he's done a remarkable job and he's he's got Arsenal back competing where they wanted to be and you know a short time ago it felt like they were a million miles away from that and now you look at this squad the age of it the quality of it and you think you know Arsenal are they feel like they're going to be serial contenders now over the next few years and that's because of the work that Mel artetta and edu and the board have done together so yeah it's absolutely V vitally important we've already seen links with Barcelona which quite frankly I don't worry about what whatsoever at at this stage but um there'll be a lot of clubs looking at Mel aretta because of the work he's done at Arsenal so Arsenal will need to get him tied down to a New Deal it run the one he's got at the moment runs out in 2025 I fully expect a new one will be signed at the latest before the start on next season you know 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