Is The Women's Super League More Competitive Than Ever? | w/ Maya Shah

Opta Analyst

Is the Women's Super League More Competitive Than Ever? Data Analysis with Maya Shah

The video uses the first five matchdays of the WSL season to ask whether the league is becoming more competitive. Maya Shah concludes it is too early to say it clearly is, but the traditional elite are under pressure, Tottenham and London City are challenging the old order, attacking numbers are at record highs, and the gap at the bottom remains.

Can the top teams hold their ground in the 2026-27 WSL season? We analyse the data behind the shifting competitive landscape. The 2026-27 WSL season is shaping up to be a test for the established giants of the league. We examine the current state of play by breaking down key metrics. By looking at these performance indicators, we can better understand which clubs are maintaining their dominance and which are beginning to slip. We also look ahead to the future, specifically evaluating the London City Lionesses. Using our latest league position predictions, we assess whether they have the tactical consistency to challenge the status quo. This breakdown is essential for anyone tracking the evolving competitive landscape of women's football. Check out the Opta Analyst website: https://theanalyst.com/ 📬 Sign up for the Opta Analyst Newsletter here for free: https://theanalyst.com/sign-up Follow Opta Analyst: Twitter: https://x.com/OptaAnalyst Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/theoptaanalyst Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/optaanalyst/ Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@optaanalyst QUESTION - Have a question about a player or data? Drop it in the comments! QUESTION - Have a question about a player or data? Drop it in the comments! wsl womenssuperleague womensfootball

Transcript

Just five match days into the 2627 WSL season and the established hierarchy are already under pressure. But does this mean the league is getting more competitive? We're joined by OP analyst women's football expert Maya Sha to discuss the data further. Maya, I want to start with your opinion. Do you think the traditional top four are losing the grip? If you look at the table right now and you don't see Manu or Arsenal in that top four, the easy answer is you know the established hierarchy are under pressure and the most clear evidence we have of you know those sides outside the top four challenging the hierarchy is that those sides are averaging 0.42 points per game and to put that in context that's a record high for for teams against the top four and that's up from 0.3 last season. So in terms of what that you know tells us it suggests that that teams outside the traditional elite are becoming more capable of taking something away from those fixtures. In most cases it being a draw but you know a couple seasons ago they wouldn't have they would have been on the hand of like a 5-nil or a massive defeat. So matches that might once have felt pretty straightforward are becoming less predictable. Is it more of like a you know early season unpredictability or is this team is the league getting more competitive? is that teams with a higher xG have actually won just 63% of matches this season and that's the lowest um on record since OP updated XG model. So I think it's rather than a dramatic shift in quality it's it could also be down to the madness of football rather than said more comme but we're only five games in. >> We're seeing some remarkable attacking numbers this season with some metrics at record levels. What does that data tell us about the attack of football on show? >> So in terms of like the attacking levels that's where things get particularly interesting. So, the league isn't just predicting those results as I mentioned earlier, but teams are also putting up some incredibly high attacking numbers. You know, this season sides are averaging 753.5 passes per game. That's up 45 from last season, also record high. And also, we're seeing record highs among touches in opposition boxes and passes ending in the final third. Now, more passing doesn't necessarily mean that we're we're seeing better football. But what it does suggest is that with the teams progressing, you know, passes higher up the field. They're able to stay in attacks and, you know, build better quality chances in the opposition half. And that's reflected in in our data from shooting. So, shots from inside the box are now a seasonal record high of 72.1% of non-penalty attempts. And that's 3.5 percentage points higher than last season. So, we kind of get the narrative that teams are getting closer to goal before shooting. And this is most clearly shown in the average expected goals value per non-penalty shop, which is at a record high of 0.117 per season. >> It seems teams we expect mid-table It seems teams It seems teams we expect mid table are the ones making the headlines this season. But does that make it even harder for newly promoted sites? >> Yeah, so I think there's um a major caveat to the idea of the league becoming more competitive. One two teams that we know without a doubt everyone is talking about at the top is you know Tottenham and London City. there was loads of question marks over whether that like teams like London City and Tottenham could really get away from that bottom four and they've really cemented themselves in fact as challenges to to the top four going back to my first point. So the OP Supercomputer has recognized you know London City's performances and their chances of qualifying for the Champions League has actually increased from 0.6 before the season started to now 3.3 and that if to put that in context you look at Arsenal right sitting in 10th their probability has fallen from 56% to 174%. You look at Charlton, they're probably recording one of the worst ever starts to WSL season. And the OP Superco computer has responded. Their probability of finish last has increased from 14.1 before the season to now 57.7%. And I think that's the most clear example that we have of that gap existing. >> Among all this unpredictability, we have Manchester City, unbeaten across all competitions and top of the WSL. Are they the one constant in this unpredictable season? >> Yeah, I'd say so. I think there were question marks at the start of the season whether city could handle you know the extra um added schedule of European football with defending their you know WSL crown and I think so far the signs are pretty pretty encouraging. They're unbeaten across all seven games in all comps including the Champions League and they've won all five. So they scored 16 goals and their winning probability has increased from preseason um from 30.5 to now 44.9%. But it's not been all sunshine and rainbows you know it's not been all positive for City because they're actually conceding 1.2 2 goals per game and that's up from 0.86 last season. So I suggest there's room for improvement, but they are definitely the most confident that we can say that the WSL has seen from from last season. >> And finally, taking all the data into consideration, do you think the WSL is getting more competitive? >> I think five games is definitely a very hard sample to make a concrete conclusion, but I think it's the question that, you know, fans are asking. We're all wondering. So, I think it kind of the early evidence points to it becoming harder to call. Whether that is about it being more competitive or just, you know, the the uh the established side slipping up, we'll only find out later, but the conclusions are very clear. The traditional elite are under pressure. Tottenham and London City are giving us reason to question that established order. The attacking numbers are at all-time highs and teams at the bottom like that gap remains firmly. So, I think the fairest verdict is it's not yet more competitive, but the established hierarchy looks less secure than it has for some