Supercomputer Predicts and Ranks 5 Most Likely Punishments For Man City

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Supercomputer predicts and ranks the 5 most likely punishments for Man City after the guilty charges verdict.

Just about everyone in football right now is desperate to find out what will happen to Manchester City. An independent commission has found the club guilty of breaking the Premier League’s financial rules, and serious consequences are expected.

While City have appealed the decision, if that is unsuccessful, the Etihad side are set to be in line for some unprecedented sanctions. From points deductions to complete expulsion, many have discussed just what might happen next.

However, it could be months into 2027 before an outcome is known, with the Premier League unable to do much to speed up the process. In the meantime, though, a Supercomputer has predicted and ranked the five most likely punishments for Man City.

Thanks to research conducted by Tipman Tips, here are the possible outcomes.

It won't please many – apart from Man City fans – to see that the Supercomputer believes a fine-led outcome has been given a 10% chance of happening. In this prediction, it's stated that a fine of £250m or more, and a small or suspended points deduction would occur.

As a result of this, with the points deduction so negligible, Enzo Maresca's side would not even have to worry about relegation. Considering the strong fallout after the guilty verdict news – with Gary Neville among those calling for serious sanctions – this scenario would likely prompt more outrage.

Talk of expulsion from the Premier League has been on the lips of many, with some senior figures even said to be keen on pushing through the punishment immediately after City's 3-0 win over Liverpool. While that doesn't seem likely right now, the Supercomputer thinks there's a 10% chance the independent commission decides this is a fair sanction to hand out after the years of rule-breaking.

If that was the outcome, Man City would be dropped all the way down to League Two (England's fourth tier). It's then predicted to take the club until the 2031/32 season before they are back in the top flight.

A heavy but survivable points deduction has then been backed as the third-most likely outcome. This would certainly make for an interesting Premier League spectacle. Man City would see between 30 to 45 points taken from their current tally, while also picking up a record fine.

Sitting on 18 points as things stand after six league games, the club would suddenly drop from first to last in the table with -27 points. At the rate they are going, you'd expect City to easily avoid relegation, but this would take them out of the title race. Perhaps Arsenal would benefit the most from this punishment.

There are plenty who feel as though City's punishment for their cheating should be spread across numerous seasons. One popular touted sanction would see the club carry point deductions into multiple campaigns across the coming years.

The Supercomputer appears on board with the idea, predicting a 20% chance that the Etihad side will not only be hit with relegation, but there will also be lasting penalties. This scenario would see points deducted across two seasons, plus a transfer ban also handed out. Should this happen, Man City are tipped to return to the Premier League in 2029/30.

Manchester City have lodged an appeal against Premier League charges and fans now wait eagerly to hear the outcome of that hearing.

The most likely outcome for City – in the eyes of the Supercomputer – is that the Manchester club are hit with a relegation-sized points deduction. This would mean stripping the side of 60 to 80 points. Although in the winning run of form the club's currenlty on, it may well have to be 80 points to be sure of relegation.

On top of that, a fine of £100m to £200m would also be dished out. The Supercomputer tips City to spend one season down in the Championship before returning for the 2028/29 campaign. With a 40% chance of this happening, it would be fascinating to see if the football world also deemed all that a suitable sanction.

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