How the 2026-27 Premier League table might look if Man City are deducted 10-100 points

· Mirror

The Premier League table could look very different come the end of the season depending on whether Manchester City are hit with a points deduction

The footballing world is waiting with bated breath to learn the repercussions of Manchester City’s guilty verdict. After an investigation spanning several years, City were found guilty of breaching 114 of the Premier League’s financial rules between the period 2009 and 2018.

City, who won eight pieces of silverware across those nine years, including three league titles, continue to maintain their innocence. Last week, they appealed the verdict reached by an independent commission, saying they are "disappointed and surprised" by the ruling.

We therefore still do not know what sanctions they will face, with only speculation to go by as of now. That speculation has seen various punishments, including automatic relegation, stripping of titles, transfer bans, fines, and points deductions, be discussed by fans and the media. Mirror Football now considers the hypothetical scenario in which City, if the guilty verdict remains, follow the precedent set by Everton and Nottingham Forest’s past point deductions.

We will look at how points penalties of varying severity will affect City’s position in the table come the end of the 2026/27 season, using Opta’s current predicted end of season table. The table, which has been generated based on the current standings and fixtures remaining, includes decimal places for points tallies, which we have rounded to the nearest whole number.

City are predicted to end the season on 75.29 points, which rounded down, means they narrowly miss out on the title to Arsenal again, this time by a single point. In an optimistic scenario where they are only fined 10 points - the same as Everton initially received in 2023 before their appeal - they will remain runners-up on 65 points. This outcome ensures a Champions League spot for Enzo Maresca’s side next season, while Arsenal clinch the title with one of the lowest point totals to date.

A 15-point deduction would represent the most severe points punishment in the league’s history. Yet, using Opta’s metrics, they would still finish in third place and qualify for the Champions League - representing a mere slap on the wrist rather than the club being made an example of as many would like. The likes of Chelsea and Brentford could feel especially aggrieved if they lost out on a Champions League spot to a guilty City.

Even a whopping 20-point deduction won’t be enough for City to drop out of the Champions League qualification spots. However, it must be noted that Opta predicts teams to end this season on remarkably low points totals, which is presumably due to the high level of competition across the league. Again, the clubs outside the top four would still be left furious in this case.

A 25-point deduction is where things start to change rather drastically. This would place City 11th on 50 points, marking the first time the club have finished outside the top four since the 2009/10 season under Roberto Mancini, and their first bottom half finish since back in 2006/07, before Sheikh Mansour’s takeover.

Here, things start to look very bad for City visually on the table, though there is little real difference between being deducted 30 points and 25 points. The economic repercussions of a lack of European football and reputational damage would hit City the hardest with this outcome, though it is unlikely to have major long term repercussions.

Being deducted 40 points would guarantee City’s relegation, placing them behind even Frank Lampard’s Coventry City. This would send shockwaves around the world of football and act as a major deterrent for other clubs looking to get around financial rules. City, if relegated, would have to rebuild again, as the majority of their players are expected to leave.

A 100-point deduction would be more symbolic than anything, having the same end result as a 40-point hit. It would, however, ensure City’s relegation, no matter how badly other teams perform. There is an argument to be made by those that want to see an example made of the club, though, that a lesser point deduction guaranteeing relegation along with other sanctions, such as fines and stripping City’s titles, would be more effective.

Read the original

Related